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Wullie Davidson Climate Change: ‘Godzilla’ El Nino Brewing

Well, that’s the click baiting name that the press have given what seems likely to be the strongest El Nino on record, and probably by some margin. Question is, what effect will it have on our weather, in the UK? The effect that El Nino has on regions tends to be less predictable, the further you are from the tropical Pacific, and the UK is a long way away. However, strong El Ninos do seem to have a pronounced effect on polar jet stream activity, and the UK’s weather is profoundly influenced by the polar jet.

Stormy Weather Ahead

The best approach might be to look at what happened in the past, when there were stronger than normal El Ninos. The two strongest El Ninos this century were in 2015-16 and 2023-24. 2015 was the year when the Met. Office started giving names to storms, and the storm season runs from September 1 to August 31, with the large majority of storms occurring from October to March. The 2015-16 season was exceptionally stormy, with 11 named storms. Storm Desmond dumped 341.4 mm (13.3 in) of rain in Cumbria in a 24 hour period, setting a new UK record for rainfall in 24 hours.It was the second wettest winter in the UK in a series going back to 1910, and the wettest in Scotland. It was also the third warmest UK winter on record, and the warmest on record for England and Wales.

2023-24

Storm Agnes Sept 2023 NASA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

There were 12 named storms in the UK in the 2023-24 storm season, which is the current record. The October 2023 to March 2024 winter half year was the wettest in the UK in a series going back to 1766-67. It was the 5th warmest winter (Dec-Feb) in the UK, and the warmest February. The UK’s 10 warmest Februarys since 1884 now include 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2026, as clear a signal as you could wish for that the climate has changed.

So, if previous very strong El Nino years are a reliable indicator, we can expect the coming winter half year in the UK to be very stormy, very wet and very mild. But, it’s weather, and we know how unpredictable it can be, particularly when using just two analogue years for comparison. The strengthening El Nino will very probably be record strong by a wide margin, and that might take us into uncharted waters. If it’s as strong as predicted, 2027 will probably beat the global temperature record by 0.3 to 0.4C. But, whether or not this is associated with an increased frequency of extreme droughts and floods remains to be seen.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season That Wasn’t

Officially, the Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends on November 30. It usually doesn’t get into full swing until late August, and September is normally the busiest month, with September 10 being the peak of the season. Pre-season predictions were for a very quiet season, due to the expected very strong El Nino, which increases wind shear over the North Atlantic, suppressing storm development. However, no one expected that we’d get to October without a single hurricane. Seasonal predictions were about 4 or 5 hurricanes. The average is 7, with 3 of them majors. Since 1950, only 3 Septembers have passed without a hurricane – 1994, 1972 and 1962.

Hurricane Isaias 2026

Hurricane Isaias 2026 ABI Imagery from NOAA’s GOES-19 Satellite, Publidomain, via Wikimedia Commons

Hurricane Isaias formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday (Oct 8), and is predicted to become a strong category 2, with 110 mph winds, before weakening and making landfall near the Florida/Alabama border around midnight, Friday. Most of the damage it causes might come from a marine storm surge of up to 7 feet.

Wullie Davidson, October 2026

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