Polar scientist wary of impending satellite gap.
Scientists are concerned that the two satellites monitoring Arctic, Antarctic and glacial ice volumes, CryoSat-2 and IceSat-2, will expire before their successor, the EC/Esa Cristal is launched in 2027/28 This could mean a 2-5 year gap in our knowledge of how much annual ice loss is occurring.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/…29 November, 2020
The NASA global temperature anomaly (ref 1951-80) for May is in, and it sets a new record for the month, at +1.02 C, beating the 2016 record of +0.96 C. The annual anomaly for 2020 looks very likely to beat the mega El Nino boosted 2016 record, despite being a non El Nino year.
‘Global temperature records are more likely to be set during the peak of the solar cycle–and during strong El Niño events, due to the extra heat the tropical Pacific Ocean gives up to the atmosphere. The remarkable warmth of 2020 has come in the absence of an El Niño event and during the minimum of one of the weakest 11-year solar cycles in the past century, underscoring the dominant role human-caused global warming has in heating our planet.’
13 June, 2020 – Worse Case Global Heating Scenarios
The latest supercomputer models are telling us that it’s worse than we thought. From the Guardian:
Worst-case global heating scenarios may need to be revised upwards in light of a better understanding of the role of clouds, scientists have said.
Recent modelling data suggests the climate is considerably more sensitive to carbon emissions than previously believed, and experts said the projections had the potential to be “incredibly alarming”, though they stressed further research would be needed to validate the new numbers.
Modelling results from more than 20 institutions are being compiled for the sixth assessment by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is due to be released next year.
Compared with the last assessment in 2014, 25% of them show a sharp upward shift from 3C to 5C in climate sensitivity – the amount of warming projected from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from the preindustrial level of 280 parts per million. This has shocked many veteran observers, because assumptions about climate sensitivity have been relatively unchanged since the 1980s.
“That is a very deep concern,” Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said. “Climate sensitivity is the holy grail of climate science. It is the prime indicator of climate risk. For 40 years, it has been around 3C. Now, we are suddenly starting to see big climate models on the best supercomputers showing things could be worse than we thought.”
21 June, 2020
The most northerly temperature of 100 F was recorded yesterday, at Verkhoyansk, in Siberia, which sits 70 miles north of the Arctic circle.
This section: Science: Climate Change and Other Topics
Filed under: Science: Climate Change and Other Topics