I’ll take those 5/1 odds. Bet of the century. The first 9 months of 2020 are averaging 1.05 C above the 1951-80 average (NASA GISS). The current warmest year, globally, is 2016, at + 1.02 C. The La Nina cooling effect isn’t that noticeable early on, being more noticeable the following year. The NASA figure for October hasn’t been added to the table data page yet.

Add to that the fact that Arctic Ocean ice volume is currently neck and neck with the record low winter volume year, and this always produces high air temperatures there which boost the global temperature anomaly.

6 December, 2020 – Record Warmth in the Artic

There has been record warmth in the Arctic, particularly in eastern Siberia and Canada. The polar jet stream has been changed by global warming, so that its giant, meandering waves are plunging further south, taking cold air with them, and taking warm air north on their return. We’re getting the cold bit, and they’re expecting a huge snowfall in the Alps.

There’s currently a La Nina in the Pacific, which would usually mean that global temperatures will be a little lower in the first four months of 2021. However, Arctic Ocean sea ice volume is currently at a record low, and this will have a warming effect, which will more than counteract the cooling effect of La Nina. I expect global temperatures for the first four months of 2021 might set a new record, despite the La Nina, which would show just how ‘out of kilter’ the global climate has become.

Early indications are that November was the warmest November on record, globally, by around 0.05 C. Doesn’t sound much, but is actually a fair jump.

Nasa Figure For November 2020

The NASA figure for the November global temperature anomaly has just been added to the table data, an incredible 1.13 C above the 1951-80 average, and that during a strong La Nina, which should have caused significant cooling.

The previous highest November was during the record 2015/16 El Nino, at 1.06 C. So, a strong La Nina year beats a record El Nino year by 0.07 C, just 5 years later. That is very, very disturbing.

And I really don’t get why scientists are saying that 2020 ‘might beat or tie’ the 2016 record warmth year. The 11 months so far in 2020 are 1.04 C higher than the 1951-80 average. The full year for 2016 was +1.01 C, so 2020 is quite clearly going to set a new record, in the NASA GISS record, anyway.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/…

The NASA GISS global temperature anomaly for December 2020

Added to the table data, and it’s surprisingly small – just the sixth warmest December on record, and the lowest anomaly for any month since August 2018.

That makes 2020 the joint warmest year on record with 2016 at 1.02 C above the 1951-80 average. The reason for the low anomaly is the recent development of a La Nina in the tropical Pacific, which is the cool counterpart of  El Nino. A record strong El Nino boosted global temperatures in 2016.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

However, the Guardian states that the NASA figures make 2020 slightly warmer of 2016, by less than a hundredth of a degree.

“Last year was by a narrow margin the hottest ever on record, according to Nasa, with the climate crisis stamping its mark on 2020 through soaring temperatures, enormous hurricanes and unprecedented wildfires.

The average global land and ocean temperature in 2020 was the highest ever measured, Nasa announced on Thursday, edging out the previous record set in 2016 by less than a tent

Due to slightly different methods used, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) judged 2020 as fractionally cooler than 2016, while the UK Met Office also put 2020 in a close second place. The European Union’s climate observation program puts the two years in a dead heat.”

February 2021 16th Warmest On Record

February 2021 was the 16th warmest February since global record keeping began in 1880, 0.65 degrees Celsius (1.17°F) above the 20th century average, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, NCEI, reported March 12.

NASA rated the month as the 14th warmest February on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency has not yet released its February numbers. Minor differences in rankings often occur among various research groups, the result of different ways they handle data-sparse regions such as the Arctic.

February 2021 was Earth’s coolest month (relative to average) since April 2015, according to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the coolest February since 2014. This relative coolness was partially the result of a strong negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the first half of the month. In a negative AO phase, the jet stream weakens and meanders, creating larger troughs and ridges, allowing very cold Arctic air to spill southward over the mid-latitudes. The AO on February 10-11 was -5.3, which essentially ties February 5, 1978, and February 13, 1969, for the lowest February value on record.

According to NCEI’s annual temperature outlook, the year 2021 is 96% likely to rank among the 10 warmest years on record, and 85% likely to rank among the eight warmest years on record. In that latter case, each of the eight calendar years 2014 through 2021 would rank among the eight warmest years on record, dating back to 1880. The NCEI outlook finds that 2021 has just a 0.1% chance of displacing 2016 and 2020 as the warmest years on record. The low expectations for a warmest-year-on-record reflect the presence of a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which cools the planet slightly.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/03/february-2021-was-the-16th-warmest-february-on-record-noaa-reports/