797 replies to this topic

[Pat]

Anybody got a crystal ball?

Three different scenarios painted of Scotland's economic future:

Robert Towthorn, Emeritus Professor Economics at Cambridge suggests that 'a prosperous independent nation would not need outside help and be a valuable trading partner for the rest of the UK'

However, if the independent nation ran into financial trouble it would have to be bailed out by the rest of the UK.

Placing emphasis on the importance of oil and gas for an independent Scotland's financial future, Mr Rowthorn posited three scenarios:

Best Case

"a fiscal surplus of £1.1bn or 0.7% of Scotland's GDP, and is based on a future Scottish Government taking no responsibility for Scotland's share of UK national debt (currently around £1 trillion); buoyant North Sea revenues; and having modest Nordic-style armed forces with no Trident submarines."

Intermediate scenario

"would leave a newly independent Scotland with a fiscal deficit of £4bn or 2.4% of GDP. This scenario is based on it accepting a per capita share of national debt; buoyant hydrocarbon prices; and Orkney and Shetland being part of an independent Scotland."

Worst Case

"would leave Scotland with a deficit of £9.4bn or 5.9% of GDP. It is based on Scotland taking its per capita share of UK national debt; Orkney and Shetland (with a 30% slice of North Sea revenue) remaining in the UK; and oil and gas prices lower than expected."

http://www.heraldsco...unding.17871114

Who knows?

[Dexter St. Clair]

Looking forward to a possible invasion of Orkney and Shetland.

I thank John Swinney for another example of so called independence

“It would simply not make sense for anyone to resist the creation of a formal Sterling zone and the mutual benefit it would bring. He continued, “As the Bank of England takes on the role of regulator for UK financial services– a very sensible and long overdue position – retaining the pound will preserve the highly integrated UK financial services market."
Sir Howard Davies former head of the Financial Services Authority (FSA) questioned the clarity of the Mr. Swinney’s currency plans in the event of independence. Prompted in part by Mr. Swinney’s lecture, Mr. Davies spoke on BBC Radio’s ‘Good Morning Scotland’ programme this morning. He commented on the consequences of retaining sterling, with financial regulation controlled by the Bank of England and the existence of potentially two Treasuries.

“It’s not obvious quite how a system with two separate finance ministries and one central bank would work,” he said. “I don’t quite know how you can be a servant of two masters, in terms of two separate treasuries and one central bank. I can’t think of an analogy where that’s the case.”

It would appear that John Swinney is seeking separation from certain parts of the UK but is facing the possibility of certain parts of Scotland wishing to remain in the UK. But our currency regardless of where we live will continue to be regulated by The Bank of England.

[Canny Lass]

Anybody got a crystal ball?

Three different scenarios painted of Scotland's economic future:

Robert Towthorn, Emeritus Professor Economics at Cambridge suggests that 'a prosperous independent nation would not need outside help and be a valuable trading partner for the rest of the UK'

However, if the independent nation ran into financial trouble it would have to be bailed out by the rest of the UK.

Placing emphasis on the importance of oil and gas for an independent Scotland's financial future, Mr Rowthorn posited three scenarios:

Best Case

"a fiscal surplus of £1.1bn or 0.7% of Scotland's GDP, and is based on a future Scottish Government taking no responsibility for Scotland's share of UK national debt (currently around £1 trillion); buoyant North Sea revenues; and having modest Nordic-style armed forces with no Trident submarines."

Intermediate scenario

"would leave a newly independent Scotland with a fiscal deficit of £4bn or 2.4% of GDP. This scenario is based on it accepting a per capita share of national debt; buoyant hydrocarbon prices; and Orkney and Shetland being part of an independent Scotland."

Worst Case

"would leave Scotland with a deficit of £9.4bn or 5.9% of GDP. It is based on Scotland taking its per capita share of UK national debt; Orkney and Shetland (with a 30% slice of North Sea revenue) remaining in the UK; and oil and gas prices lower than expected."

http://www.heraldsco...unding.17871114

Who knows?

No me. It's the crystal ball requirement that's the problem, Pat. If we knew the scenario then we'd be able to decide. Who decides whether Scotland has to take on a share of UK's date if they pull out. Would that not be based on whether or not they where putting in more than they were getting on. Some argue that this is the case and others disagree.

[Pat]

No me. It's the crystal ball requirement that's the problem, Pat. If we knew the scenario then we'd be able to decide. Who decides whether Scotland has to take on a share of UK's date if they pull out. Would that not be based on whether or not they where putting in more than they were getting on. Some argue that this is the case and others disagree.

You;re right, CL. If only we knew.

[harper]

Dare I ask? How is the campaign to maintain the Union going? I heard Darlin's initial speech and then not a peep.

[Pat]

Dare I ask? How is the campaign to maintain the Union going? I heard Darlin's initial speech and then not a peep.

I listened to the Big Debate the other night with Annabel Goldie, Margaret Curran, Fiona Hyslop and Margo Macdonald. A whole lot of topics covered including welfare provision, the economy, who actually owns the oil? and, of course, the referendum - one question or two?

I'm none the wiser, although, it was pretty interesting listening to the different personalities and observing their approaches. Margo Macdonald is by far the most witty, charming and sticks clearly to her convictions. You cannot help but respect Annabel Goldie as she speaks with such authority but if only she wasn't a Tory. Margaret Curran is far too touchy and Fiona still appears a bit of a light weight - she needs to work on her feistiness.

Brian Taylor appeared to enjoy himself but big questions answered...no really.

He explains what he sees as some of the options regarding the referendum questions:
http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-18654724

[tig]

[Dexter St. Clair]

And whilst all of this is going on Linda Fabiani and George Adam focus on their fight for so called independence.

The worst side of nationalism' — SNP accused of 'petty' row over Olympic flags in Holyrood canteen
There was fury at Holyrood when union flags were removed from the canteen after protests from Nationalists.

Scotland Courier

Here's some of the detractors of the Yes to separation campaign

Jenkins' most pressing task is to re-engage prominent supporters of independence outside the SNP who have criticised Yes Scotland, including the Scottish Green leader, Patrick Harvie, and Margo MacDonald, the former SNP MP now sitting as an independent MSP at Holyrood.

They have accused Yes Scotland and the SNP leadership of failing to be inclusive and collaborative. Harvie, who helped Salmond launch Yes Scotland, said the campaign was a narrowly focused vehicle for the SNP, and withdrew his party's support.

At the weekend, the Sunday Herald published highly critical emails from the actor Elaine C Smith and others in the Scottish Independence Convention, a grouping of leftwing, republican and non-nationalist supporters of independence, accusing Yes Scotland of botching its launch.

BBC News
That's why Eck stood down and Blair Jennings took over apparently but I think he needs a fall guy.

[tig]

Dex sticking to topic as per then?

in other news.....electoral commission tells the no campaign to shove their "experts" up their jacksy

http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-18802962

[Pat]

Claims that Scotland will rise out of the economic recession more speedily than the rest of the UK in today's Herald. Although The Fraser of Allander Institute are less optimistic.

Finance Secretary John Swinney said: "The economy in Scotland is demonstrating a greater resilience than the UK, but global growth is forecast to remain subdued for the rest of this year, with improvements occurring through 2013."

But action needed by Osborne. [The man without a worry in the world - or so it would appear.]

"We need the Chancellor to take action, follow Scotland's lead, and borrow an extra £5 billion to invest in capital projects which would guarantee Scotland's £400m plus share would be allocated in this financial year.

http://www.heraldsco...2014-x.18264895

[Pat]

This could present a huge problem regarding an independent Scotland and the economy:


Alistair Carmichael, the Northern Isles' MP, insists that few Orcadians and Shetlanders support independence and that they are disenchanted by the centralising control of Edinburgh. He argues that the islanders will insist on the right to determine their their future regarding sticking with the UK.

At issue is the islands' oil and gas, reckoned to be around one third of what would be Scotland's majority share of North Sea reserves with an income of £1.5 billion a year.



http://www.heraldsco...-warns.18336259

Could Scotland be independent without this wealth?

Maybe Glasgow will vote to stay and Edinburgh to go for independence. How would that work?

[samscafeamericain]

This could present a huge problem regarding an independent Scotland and the economy:


Alistair Carmichael, the Northern Isles' MP, insists that few Orcadians and Shetlanders support independence and that they are disenchanted by the centralising control of Edinburgh. He argues that the islanders will insist on the right to determine their their future regarding sticking with the UK.

At issue is the islands' oil and gas, reckoned to be around one third of what would be Scotland's majority share of North Sea reserves with an income of £1.5 billion a year.



http://www.heraldsco...-warns.18336259

Could Scotland be independent without this wealth?

Maybe Glasgow will vote to stay and Edinburgh to go for independence. How would that work?

Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

Maybe Manchester and Newcastle will want to join Scotland, who knows what could happen. Although what you are guaranteed is that unionist MPs will be talking utter bollox in the run up to the referendum.

[Pat]

Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

Maybe Manchester and Newcastle will want to join Scotland, who knows what could happen. Although what you are guaranteed is that unionist MPs will be talking utter bollox in the run up to the referendum.

But can the lions and tigers breakaway and the bears stay put? Can Edinburgh be in the UK and Newcastle part of Independent Scotland? Bit messy.

And if whether it's a threat or not or likely and possible to happen - would and independent Scotland be viable without the wealth of the northern isles?

Norway might have its eye on them.

[Canny Lass]

But can the lions and tigers breakaway and the bears stay put? Can Edinburgh be in the UK and Newcastle part of Independent Scotland? Bit messy.

And if whether it's a threat or not or likely and possible to happen - would and independent Scotland be viable without the wealth of the northern isles?

Norway might have its eye on them.

Could get a tad confusing. Ruchill in and Maryhill oot.

[samscafeamericain]

But can the lions and tigers breakaway and the bears stay put? Can Edinburgh be in the UK and Newcastle part of Independent Scotland? Bit messy.

And if whether it's a threat or not or likely and possible to happen - would and independent Scotland be viable without the wealth of the northern isles?

Norway might have its eye on them.

What wealth of the Northern Isles? The oil and gas are in Scottish territorial waters.

You want to see messy, just wait until a referendum is held regarding continued EU membership and Scotland and Wales vote to stay in and England votes to exit.

[Pat]

What wealth of the Northern Isles? The oil and gas are in Scottish territorial waters.

Some people have raised concerns, samsc.

"In recent evidence to the House of Lords Economic Committee when it was inquiring into the implications of Scottish independence, Robert Rowthorn, Emeritus Professor of Economics at Cambridge University, estimated that the oil and gas share from Orkney and Shetland represented about 30% of total Scottish reserves, which would be lost to an independent Scotland should the Northern Isles vote to stay with the UK."
http://www.heraldsco...-warns.18336259

You want to see messy, just wait until a referendum is held regarding continued EU membership and Scotland and Wales vote to stay in and England votes to exit.

You're right - a whole other problem.

[samscafeamericain]

lets see the Professor apply that in international law; he's talking scaremongering bollox. The last throw of the dice by desperate men.

[Pat]

lets see the Professor apply that in international law; he's talking scaremongering bollox. The last throw of the dice by desperate men.

So it's just to be like normal politics - majority vote wins? If the northern isles vote against it makes no difference if, more or less the, rest of Scotland is in favour?

You would think professors would know that.

[Pat]

Concerns appear to be growing and voices being raised at Holyrood with regard to the proposed stance by SNP that an independent Scotland would remain within NATO.

http://www.heraldsco...n-plan.18423369

[Pat]

Concerns appear to be growing and voices being raised at Holyrood with regard to the proposed stance by SNP that an independent Scotland would remain within NATO.

http://www.heraldsco...n-plan.18423369

Now it looks as though the Welsh have their eyes on Trident.

http://www.heraldsco...-alone.18556460