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Wuhan coronavirus in Scotland?


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This is interesting - very. Someone is suggesting that the MMR vaccine may be the reason why so few younger people are being seriously affected by COVID-19. Correlation is not causation, of course, and I'm sceptical, but definitely something worth looking into. Here's a cut and paste.

MMR Vaccine Link to COVID-19: Fewer Deaths and Milder Cases from SARS-CoV-2 in Measles-Rubella Vaccinated Populations v4.0 MMR vaccine studied as possible way to protect vulnerable people from COVID-19

Principal Investigator: Jeff Gold; Co-Investigator: Dr. Larry P. Tilley, Diplomate, ACVIM (Internal Medicine) Correspondence: Text/Phone: 202-642-4445; Email: media@world.org

Widely deployed measles-rubella containing vaccines (MRCV) including MMR, MR, and MMRV are theorized by the Principal Investigator to be why children, teenagers and other young adults often have few severe symptoms from COVID-19, and few deaths are attributed to COVID-19 in young age groups. We believe it is possible MRCV are responsible for widely varying outcomes related to COVID-19 in different age groups and different countries. COVID-19 has what appears to be a clearly defined fatality rate pivot point close to 50 years old. From birth to age 49 the fatality rate from COVID-19 increases only slightly with each year of age. After age 50 the fatality rate from COVID-19 climbs quickly and steadily. This is very different from most other diseases.

The MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine was introduced in 1971. It was most commonly given as a single vaccination from 1971-1978 then as a set of two vaccinations at least 28 days apart starting in 1979. Based upon its year of introduction, most people today aged 49 and under would likely have had at least one MMR vaccination, and those 41 and under would most likely have had two MMR vaccinations. This vaccine history may be a possible explanation for a COVID-19 death rate pivot point close to age 50. The fact that some aged 40-49 only received a single MRCV dose is a possible reason why this age range has a marginally higher death rate than those under 40. In countries where vaccination "catch up" programs have been instituted in recent decades there appears to be the lowest incidence of death from COVID-19, and in a few countries no deaths at all. In many of these countries, two doses of MRCV were given to older teenagers, and in some cases also to young adults, in addition to children.

Full article here

https://world.org/COVID-19-MMR.pdf

PS Looks like page 5 has disappeared.

 

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Some interesting vaccine developments.

'A coronavirus vaccine being developed by Oxford University has begun human trials with the first two patients being injected with the potential vaccine.

Two volunteers were injected on Thursday, with one receiving the vaccine and the other receiving a control - a widely available meningitis vaccine, the University said. The pair will be monitored for 48 hours, before six more people enter the trial on Saturday and a larger number will join at the beginning of next week.

Researchers said if transmission in the community remains high they may have enough data to see if the vaccine works “in a couple of months”, but if transmission levels drop it could take up to six months. Scientists at Oxford have previously said the aim is to produce a million doses of the vaccine by September.

Around 1,110 people will take part in the trial with half being injected with control and half with the vaccine. Professor Sarah Gilbert, who is leading the Oxford vaccine team, has previously said she’s “80% confident” the vaccine will work.

 

The vaccine has been made from a weakened version of a common cold virus that causes infections in chimpanzees, which has been modified so it is impossible to grow in humans. Proteins from the Covid-19 virus - Spike glycoprotein - have then been added. “We are hoping to make the body recognise and develop an immune response to the Spike protein that will help stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus from entering human cells and therefore prevent infection,” the University said.'

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oxford-university-coronavirus-vaccine-to-begin-human-trials-on-thursday-as-uk-throws-everything-at-vital-breakthrough-2020-04-21?mod=mw_more_headlines

 

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Not claiming this to be true but I  did look at some figures, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and all three have diagnosed, deaths but no recoveries, are we to assume that diagnosed less deaths would leave recoveries ?

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The recoveries are announced every day at first minister's briefings in Scotland, Tam.   Scotland have higher than global rates of recover and much higher rate of recovery than England.

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That is good to here, Pat. No disrespect to the health care workers in England, I think they have a tough row to hoe, I just do not understand  the people who are praising their PM, seems to me he spent three to five weeks shaking hands and doing photo ops with him visiting hospitals etc. I said on another web site that when he was diagnosed they gave him a hospital bed immediately and not sure I would have.

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Useful information about conspiracy theories: 

 

Devi Sridhar Prof on Global Health at Edinburgh University is very wise and provides balanced, knowledgeable views on issues relating to pandemic. Super article. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/devi-sridhar-scotlands-strategy-contain-covid-19-unclear-westminster/?fbclid=IwAR3-mS7Btju-foIZopd8V55o1QOv1iK2H1zqEg4PU5k45QV4ROV63r_2_JQ

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What a debacle with Dominic Cummings – accusations of flouting guidelines and then the Advisor to Boris Johnson addressing the nation with risible explanation. 

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It is astounding what the UK Government think they can get away with. Their incompetence and lies in the face of horrific death toll in UK is unbelievable. 

Known from outset that Serco's track and trace would not be up and running until Autumn.  'a leaked email from the chief executive of Serco – one of the main companies contracted to deliver the service – revealed how he doubted the scheme would evolve smoothly but said he wanted it to “cement the position of the private sector” in the NHS supply chain. 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/04/nhs-track-and-trace-system-not-expected-to-be-operating-fully-until-september-coronavirus

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Low cost commonly prescribed steroid drug (dexamethasone) found to have a significant effect on the survival chances of patients with COVID-19, reducing deaths in ventilated patients by a third.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/steroid-found-to-help-prevent-deaths-of-sickest-coronavirus-patients?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1592311129

The symptoms of COVID-19 are being caused by an overactive immune system response, driven by an immune system 'master molecule' called NF-kB. Dexamethasone damps down the NF-kB driven response.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16641216/

Apart from steroids, there are other cheap, widely prescribed drugs which have the same NF-kB suppressing effect. These include statins and ACE inhibitors.

 

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On 6/16/2020 at 1:56 PM, yonza bam said:

Low cost commonly prescribed steroid drug (dexamethasone) found to have a significant effect on the survival chances of patients with COVID-19, reducing deaths in ventilated patients by a third.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/steroid-found-to-help-prevent-deaths-of-sickest-coronavirus-patients?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1592311129

The symptoms of COVID-19 are being caused by an overactive immune system response, driven by an immune system 'master molecule' called NF-kB. Dexamethasone damps down the NF-kB driven response.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16641216/

Apart from steroids, there are other cheap, widely prescribed drugs which have the same NF-kB suppressing effect. These include statins and ACE inhibitors.

 

Hi Yonza, yes great breakthrough with the dexamethasone.  I as speaking to one of my friends who was a staff nurse in intensive care for many years.  She remarked to me that it was interesting that asthma sufferers did not seem to be unduly affected by coronavius and she had wondered if this was because they were on steroids. 

On 6/17/2020 at 3:13 PM, yonza bam said:

Definitely see Vit D as an advantage in supporting immune system.  The issue of the BAME community and high incidence of death relating to Covid-19 could see a link to deficiency in Vit D.  Prof John Robertson has pointed out that in Scotland there is greater incidence of coronavirus among white population.  Be interesting to see further investigation with regard to why this should be the case. https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2020/06/03/why-are-covid-deaths-4-times-more-common-among-white-scots-than-bame-groups/

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Coronavirus: why have there been so many outbreaks in meat processing plants?

Lots of suggested contributory factors in this BBC article, but the one that rings my alarm bell is the suggestion that the fact that the plants are refrigerated may be a factor. I've never thought that this would be a winter virus, due to the carnage it caused in Guayaquil, Ecuador, which is on the equator. Now, I'm not so sure.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/53137613?__twitter_impression=true

 

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From The Guardian:

Air cooling systems used at abattoirs could be an overlooked risk factor accounting for Covid-19 outbreaks, according to scientists who have studied conditions at a meat-processing plant at the heart of a cluster of infections in Germany.

Martin Exner, a hygiene and public health expert at the University of Bonn, spent two days analysing the Tönnies plant in Gütersloh, a western German city sent back into lockdown this week after around 1,500 employees were infected with coronavirus.

At a press conference, Exner said the air filtration system in the slaughter area had contributed to the spread of aerosol droplets laden with the virus, describing it as a “newly recognised risk factor”.

The area of the plant where animals are slaughtered, gutted and cut to pieces is kept at a cool 6-10C degrees. To do this, the cooling system circulated the same unfiltered air, thus keeping aerosols in motion, Exner said. A filter fitted to the cooling system was not able to keep out the virus, his analysis found.

Meat plant must be held to account for Covid-19 outbreak, says German minister

The findings would have “big consequences” for other abattoirs as well, Exner said. Slaughterhouses have also been at the heart of Covid-19 outbreaks in America, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Australia, Brazil and other German regions.

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New swine flu with pandemic potential discovered in China.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/30/new-swine-flu-with-pandemic-potential-identified-by-china-researchers

Probably not a big deal, but the article states that more than 10% of swine workers have antibodies to the virus, and 4.4% of the general population also have antibodies. Then it goes on to say that there's no evidence of person to person transmission. How the heck can 4.4% of the population have antibodies to this novel flu virus if it's not being spread from person to person? Five minutes googling shows you can't get swine flu from eating pork.

Yet, this article from the normally reliable CNBC website states that 'it has not been known to infect humans'. Contains some quotes from Dr. Fauci, the chief advisor on the coronavirus in the US.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/dr-anthony-fauci-says-new-virus-in-china-has-traits-of-2009-h1n1-and-1918-pandemic-flu.html

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A mutation of the virus, which has actually been around for a while, but is different from the original Wuhan strain, appears to have become the dominant strain, and is much more infectious, three to nine times more infectious than the original Wuhan virus according to the article in the link. This sounds like really bad news, but it appears not to be causing more severe illness. It is more adept at latching on to, and infecting cells. It's not clear if the higher rate of infection may also be due to a higher viral load being emitted from a cough of an infected person.

Viruses are subject to Darwin's law,  'survival of the fittest'. Obviously, strains that are better at infecting cells are 'fitter'. Those that replicate more in cells would also be fitter. Those that cause less severe illness in the infected person, so that they are socialising and spreading it, rather than lying in bed in isolation, are also fitter. 

Severe COVID-19 is caused by an over  robust NF-kB driven cellular immune response. It's the person's immune system that causes the damage. Assuming that the new strain is causing a higher viral load in infected people, it must also be eliciting a less damaging immune response, if it's not causing more severe illness, and that's very good news. Viruses that evolve in a way that doesn't elicit such a  damaging immune response would also be fitter.This is my own take on the situation.  If I'm right, and the virus continues to evolve along this trajectory, it could eventually become much milder, with less need for lockdowns and social distancing. But, the rate of mutation isn't as rapid as flu viruses, so it could take some time.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-mutant-version-of-coronavirus-spreads-faster-but-doesn-t-make-people-sicker/ar-BB16h6vt

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More evidence that the virus is evolving towards a strain that doesn't elicit such a damaging immune response. The article is in Swedish. Click on 'English', top right for translation.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/kraftigt-minskad-dodlighet-bland-covidpatienter-pa-iva

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Cut & paste. 'Hearsay' evidence, mostly. I'm sure it'll turn out to be COVID-19.

"The Chinese Embassy in Kazakhstan on Thursday warned Chinese citizens living in the country of a local pneumonia of unknown cause, which local media reported has a "much higher" fatality rate than COVID-19.

The unknown pneumonia in Kazakhstan caused 1,772 deaths in the first six months of the year, including 628 people in June alone, including Chinese citizens, the embassy said in a statement on its WeChat platform on Thursday, citing Kazakh media reports.

The fatality rate of the disease is much higher than COVID-19, and organizations including Kazakhstan's health department are studying the "virus of this pneumonia," the embassy quoted media.

There hasn't been any indication whether this disease is related to the COVID-19."

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194082.shtml

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Amanda Morris Arizona Republic

Published 10:00 AM EDT Jul 11, 2020

Over 90 percent of novel coronavirus samples from Arizona in a recent genetic analysis have a mutation that researchers hypothesize makes the virus more infectious.

So far, researchers have analyzed more than 1,400 samples of the virus from patients with COVID-19 and have identified a mutated strain that they believe could help explain the recent explosion of cases in the state.

This genetic mutation affects the spikes on the outside of the virus that the virus uses to attach to and infect host cells.

Because of the mutation's crucial location, it could change the way the spikes operate to infect people, making the virus more transmissible, according to David Engelthaler, co-director of the Translational Genomics Research Institute’s Pathogen and Microbiome Division.

"That might be why it's become the dominant strain that has really moved through Europe and the Americas and certainly what we see here in Arizona," he said.

This mutated strain of the virus is the same one that researchers first identified in April as the dominant strain in Arizona and seems to have originated in Europe. Researchers initially thought that this strain was no more infectious than other strains, but was merely dominant due to chance.

However, given additional data, researchers now believe this strain behaves differently than others.

"The earlier strains that came into Arizona didn't have this mutation and those strains didn't go on in most cases to cause any type of sustained outbreaks," Engelthaler said. "They typically fizzled out."

The mutation itself is called the D614G mutation, which Dr. Anthony Fauci acknowledged as seeming to improve the virus's ability to replicate. 

The next important question is whether this more-spreadable strain is just as deadly as others.

In an interview with the Journal of the American Medical Association’s Dr. Howard Bauchner, Fauci said, "We don’t have a connection to whether an individual does worse with this or not; it just seems that the virus replicates better and may be more transmissible.”

In the interview, Fauci cautioned that researchers still need to confirm these theories and analyze the mutation further.

Engelthaler thinks this mutation could be making the virus less deadly.

"It's really hard to directly link the fatality rate to the strain of the virus," he said. "But I think there's more evidence that the fatality rates are dropping."

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Coronavirus warning from Italy: effects of COVID-19 could be worse than first thought.

https://news.sky.com/story/...

Heart scans of COVID-19 patients show a range of abnormalities.

https://www.theguardian.com...

Winter time could be COVID-19 time.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/n...

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On 7/3/2020 at 2:33 PM, yonza bam said:

A mutation of the virus, which has actually been around for a while, but is different from the original Wuhan strain, appears to have become the dominant strain, and is much more infectious, three to nine times more infectious than the original Wuhan virus according to the article in the link. This sounds like really bad news, but it appears not to be causing more severe illness. It is more adept at latching on to, and infecting cells. It's not clear if the higher rate of infection may also be due to a higher viral load being emitted from a cough of an infected person.

Viruses are subject to Darwin's law,  'survival of the fittest'. Obviously, strains that are better at infecting cells are 'fitter'. Those that replicate more in cells would also be fitter. Those that cause less severe illness in the infected person, so that they are socialising and spreading it, rather than lying in bed in isolation, are also fitter. 

Severe COVID-19 is caused by an over  robust NF-kB driven cellular immune response. It's the person's immune system that causes the damage. Assuming that the new strain is causing a higher viral load in infected people, it must also be eliciting a less damaging immune response, if it's not causing more severe illness, and that's very good news. Viruses that evolve in a way that doesn't elicit such a  damaging immune response would also be fitter.This is my own take on the situation.  If I'm right, and the virus continues to evolve along this trajectory, it could eventually become much milder, with less need for lockdowns and social distancing. But, the rate of mutation isn't as rapid as flu viruses, so it could take some time.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-mutant-version-of-coronavirus-spreads-faster-but-doesn-t-make-people-sicker/ar-BB16h6vt

REALLY HOPE YOU'RE RIGHT, YONZA.

4 hours ago, yonza bam said:

Coronavirus warning from Italy: effects of COVID-19 could be worse than first thought.

https://news.sky.com/story/...

Heart scans of COVID-19 patients show a range of abnormalities.

https://www.theguardian.com...

Winter time could be COVID-19 time.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/n...

Very worrying about the range of abnormalities people being left with. 

Regarding the weaher factor, I read a while back that countries coming out of Summer Time like New Zealand and Australia appeared to have fared better, notwithstanding robust strategies adopted.  Thanks for all the research, Yonza. Very informative.

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Resurgence of coronavirus in SE Asia. They did a great job of suppressing the original Wuhan strain, but are now dealing with the much more infectious mutated strain that Europe and the Americas have to deal with. And, it looks like a losing battle. Some research indicates that the new strain emerged in Europe as early as January, and is 3 to 9 times as transmissible as the original strain. 

https://www.straitstimes.co...

To see the evolution of the virus, and how the mutated strain outcompeted the original strain to become  predominant, click on 'play' in the website on the link. It's very impressive stuff. 

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?animate=2019-12-20,2020-07-14,0,0,30000&c=gt-S_614

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