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yonza bam

Wuhan coronavirus in Scotland?

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Went to the East Kilbride shopping centre yesterday. Sundays at 12 noon are never very busy, but this was as dead as I've seen it. McDonald's was still open, as was KFC, and the coffee shops, but only for takeaways. I hear that Mcdonald's is closing down all their outlets after 7 pm this evening. The restaurants, 3 pubs and 3 bookmakers shops were closed, and some shops that could have stayed open had opted to close. The barber's shops were still doing business, which surprised me a bit. I'd have thought they'd be closed like the pubs and restaurants.

Some shops had  signs urging card payment, but not actually saying that they would refuse cash. Only saw one person wearing a face mask, an assistant in the Holland & Barrett health food shop. Got a year's supply of vitamin D and C, but not from H&B. They're too expensive.  And I got £10 worth of frozen basa. That's not me hoarding. I always buy 3 bags of basa from Iceland when I'm in. My local Sainsbury's hasn't stocked it for a while, so I've been making do with pollack for my stir fries. Pollack's okay, but not as firm and tasty as basa. I almost live on brown rice, fish and vegetable stir fries. 

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Believing that cow urine can ward off coronavirus, a Hindu group in India reportedly hosted a cow urine drinking party Saturday to test their belief.

The cow is sacred to many Hindus and some drink cow urine believing it has medicinal purposes.

But experts have repeatedly asserted that cow urine does not cure illnesses like cancer and there is no evidence that it can prevent coronavirus, according to Reuters.

The party hosted by Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha (All India Hindu Union) drew a crowd of 200 people in New Delhi, according to Reuters.

“We have been drinking cow urine for 21 years, we also take bath in cow dung. We have never felt the need to consume English medicine,” Om Prakash, an attendee told Reuters.

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I've just been reading a paper that said COVID-19 infects the brain. That rang an alarm bell. A lot of these emerging infections can have what are known as 'sequelae'. That's a higher incidence of various diseases in those who have been infected years later. Zika, chikungunya, and particularly Lyme disease spring to mind. Post infectious Lyme can have many neurological symptoms.

SARS happened in 2003, so I decided to see if I could find any info on SARS sequelae. Found this. Only a tiny number of people were infected with SARS. Some are predicting as high as 80% infected with COVID-19.

In this issue, Mak et al. [1] report that among 90 residents of Hong Kong who were infected with SARS and survived, 23 (25.6%) had posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and 14 (15.6%) had depressive disorders 30 months after their infection (a total of 27 people, 30%, had at least one of these diagnoses). The authors refer to this as a “mental health catastrophe.” What are we to make of this report? The first thing to note is that these results are consistent with previous studies that have reported persistent psychological symptoms in 41–65% of SARS survivors [2], [3], [4], although the previous studies were not designed to diagnose psychiatric illness. The finding that SARS patients who were healthcare workers are at increased risk of PTSD (40.7%) is also consistent with one previous report [2] and with the finding that healthcare workers who cared for SARS patients but were not infected continued to experience substantial psychological distress [5], if not mental illness [6], 1–2 years after the outbreak.

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Will have a look at the site you mentioned above, Yonza. I have Lyme Disease which I contracted in Canada in 2006. It definitely had neurological symptoms with one of the most difficult symptoms being what they call 'brain fog'.  Took me a long, long time to get back to more or less normal. I had to leave my job and we also had to move house as I was too weak to manage stairs.  I got good treatment from a private Lyme Doctor in Bolton, firstly with anti-biotics over a few months and then treatment to build immunity.  Lyme is caused by bacteria though, which is different from a virus so I don't know how effective the immunity building is in relation to coronavirus but won't do any harm.  Has cost me a fortune over the years and still does. 

 

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On 3/24/2020 at 2:01 PM, yonza bam said:

Believing that cow urine can ward off coronavirus, a Hindu group in India reportedly hosted a cow urine drinking party Saturday to test their belief.

The cow is sacred to many Hindus and some drink cow urine believing it has medicinal purposes.

But experts have repeatedly asserted that cow urine does not cure illnesses like cancer and there is no evidence that it can prevent coronavirus, according to Reuters.

The party hosted by Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha (All India Hindu Union) drew a crowd of 200 people in New Delhi, according to Reuters.

“We have been drinking cow urine for 21 years, we also take bath in cow dung. We have never felt the need to consume English medicine,” Om Prakash, an attendee told Reuters.

taking a bath in cow dung will help with effective social distancing

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9 hours ago, Pat said:

Will have a look at the site you mentioned above, Yonza. I have Lyme Disease which I contracted in Canada in 2006. It definitely had neurological symptoms with one of the most difficult symptoms being what they call 'brain fog'.  Took me a long, long time to get back to more or less normal. I had to leave my job and we also had to move house as I was too weak to manage stairs.  I got good treatment from a private Lyme Doctor in Bolton, firstly with anti-biotics over a few months and then treatment to build immunity.  Lyme is caused by bacteria though, which is different from a virus so I don't know how effective the immunity building is in relation to coronavirus but won't do any harm.  Has cost me a fortune over the years and still does. 

 

Sounds horrific, Pat. I remember you mentioning it years ago, and saying that some of your friends had the same. Both bacteria and viruses can hide away in cells after the initial infection, and it's the chronically activated NF-kB driven immune response against these hidden pathogens that causes all the symptoms, so it can happen after infection with any one of a legion of pathogens. Chronic fatigue syndrome is perhaps the most common result, followed by neurological symptoms and joint and muscle pain.

I think this element of COVID-19 infection could turn out to be important if it infects as many people as the experts are predicting, but it's probably a relatively small percentage of the population who are infected that are at risk, probably the less than 20% in whom the disease is not mild. They're the ones who have an inappropriately strong NF-kB driven immune response, which can cause problems. Here's an extract from another paper:

"Results: Of 369 SARS survivors, 233 (63.1%) participated in the study (mean period of time after SARS, 41.3 months). Over 40% of the respondents had active psychiatric illnesses, 40.3% reported a chronic fatigue problem, and 27.1% met the modified 1994 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for chronic fatigue syndrome."

And this:

Among SARS survivors, high rates of distress (well above norms) were consistently reported across all timeframes in Asia Pacific regions, where the majority of studies were conducted (Chiu, 2004; Kwek et al., 2006). For example, Cheng and colleagues (2004) found that 65% of SARS patients, at 1-month recovery, scored in the “mild, moderate, or severe” range of depression and anxiety on the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI; Beck & Steer, 1987) and Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI; Beck, Epstein, Brown, & Steer, 1988; Cheng, Wong, Tsang, & Wong, 2004). Longer-term studies continued to show considerably elevated rates of psychological morbidity among SARS survivors. In a 1-year follow-up study, Lee and colleagues (2007) found elevated levels of distress on the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS) (Lee et al., 2007; Lovibond & Lovibond, 1995). The authors concluded that 64% of the survivors in their study were “potential psychiatric cases” (p. 237). In another study, based on structured diagnostic interviews, and two self-report questionnaires, a cumulative incidence (total number of diagnostic categories) of 58.9% for psychiatric disorders was found at 30 months post-SARS (Mak, Chu, Pan, Yiu, & Chan, 2009). Lam and colleagues (2009), using a thorough methodology, also reported a high rate (42.5%) of psychiatric morbidity in their large sample up to 4 years postinfection (Lam et al., 2009).

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10 hours ago, samscafeamericain said:

taking a bath in cow dung will help with effective social distancing

Who's going to deliver, samcs? 

See Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock and Prof Whitty all got the virus. Who got it first. Been standing next to each other for weeks now. Should have done that social distancing and paid heed to W.H.O.

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given this Government has excluded us from the EU ventilator programme and instead of placing an order for new ventilators with a company that actually makes them, instead  choosing to reward a tax dodging, vacuum cleaner maker who has nil experience making ventillators, him catching it was beautiful karma in action  

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UK daily reported deaths from COVID-19. These are hospital deaths of confirmed patients. In Italy, hospital deaths are believed to be only a quarter of the total COVID-19 deaths, deduced by comparing total death statistics from previous years.

 

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Tocilizumab is an antiinflammatory drug normally used for rheumatoid arthritis. I've read reports that it's better for treating COVID-19 than the more heralded hydroxychloroquine. The word 'receptor' has been omitted after the 2nd IL-6 in this cut & paste.

Background

Pneumonia is the most frequent and serious complication of coronavirus infection.

IL-6 is one of the mediators of inflammation that follows the immune response against the virus in the lung alveolus. The «cytokine storm» produces significant damage to the lung parenchyma with interstitial disease that significantly reduces respiratory function.

Tocilizumab, a humanized recombinant monoclonal antibody directed against the IL-6 provided clinical benefits and changes in biomarkers in a case study on 21 Chinese patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia (Xiaoling X. et al).

The Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) announced on March 19 the launch of TOCIVID-19, an independent phase 2 study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of tocilizumab in the treatment of pneumonia during COVID-19.

The trial has two main goals: to produce good quality data from a methodological point of view and to track all the off-label treatments with tocilizumab already going on, to evaluate systematically their impact on mortality.

 

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Concerns are growing in China that people who have tested positive for the coronavirus but show no symptoms may be spreading the disease in the country.

Health authorities in Henan Province said on Saturday that a local woman is likely to have contracted the virus from a symptom-free patient. She is one of the 45 new cases in China.

The Chinese government excludes "silent virus carriers" from official statistics, saying they are quarantined and monitored for two weeks but have a lower risk of infecting others.

A Hong Kong newspaper reported last week that classified government data show there were more than 43,000 such people in China at the end of February.

Premier Li Keqiang suggested on Thursday that the government will disclose more information and step up measures to contain the outbreak.

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Running totals of confirmed cases and deaths for some countries, comparing the stats on the 25th of March with today's, 5 days later. It's important to bear in mind that actual cases in any country are far higher than those which have been confirmed. Estimates start at 10 times higher. Same applies to deaths, but to a lesser degree. People in the community who die from pneumonia are not swabbed to test for COVID-19. Researchers studying Italian deaths estimate that COVID-19 hospital deaths, are just a quarter of total COVID-19 deaths.

UK 

25 March Cases 8,077 Deaths 422

30 March Cases 22,141 Deaths 1,408

USA

25 March Cases 54,941 Deaths 784

30 March Cases 152,719 Deaths 2,817

Italy

25 March Cases 69,176 Deaths 6,820

30 March Cases 101,739 Deaths 11,591

Spain

25 March Cases 42,058 Deaths 2,991

30 March Cases 85,195 Deaths 7,340

France 

25 March Cases 22,304 Deaths 1,100

30 March cases 44,550 Deaths 3,024

Germany 

25 March Cases 33,952 Deaths 171

30 March 63,929 Deaths 560

Australia

25 March Cases 2,423 Deaths 8

30 March Cases 4,245 Deaths 18

Totals

25 March Cases 232,931

30 March Cases 474,518

That's a weekly increase of 185%

Totals

25 March Deaths  12,296

30 March Deaths 26,758

That's a weekly increase of 205%

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The experience in Germany re mortality rates in relation to coronavirus are dramatic.  They are testing 500,000 people a week. Arguably best approach.

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UK death toll

25 March  465
2 April 3,605
A 675% rise in 8 days.

They need to tell us how much of that is in London. I suspect a lot. 

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London and West Midlands are badly impacted, very understandable Prince Charles and his  bidey in headed for Deeside.

 

 

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Terrible situation in Ecuador. Bodies lying bundled up on pavements, and families can't get them picked up by the authorities, despite repeatedly phoning. One government  worker says in the video that the number of collections has gone up from 30 to 150 a day, and that doesn't include bodies picked up by funeral parlours. You couldn't tell it was that bad from looking at the official figures, though, and the president has promised more 'transparency'.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/guayaquil-ecuador-overwhelmed-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Apart from the fact that it's a bad situation for Ecuadoreans, it's also bad for the rest of us. Many have suggested that the spread of the virus might lessen during the summer as human coronaviruses are known to spread more vigorously during the winter months. Well, Ecuador is on the equator, so that would seem to be a hope dashed.

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The latest Internet conspiracy theory will take some beating. Apparently, some (including a couple of celebrities) believe that COVID-19 illness is not being caused by a virus, but by radiation from the new 5G phone masts. So far, three 5G masts have been set ablaze.

"Social media posts from celebrities, such as the singer Anne-Marie, have helped spread the theory, while Amanda Holden, a judge on Britain’s Got Talent, shared a link to an online petition promoting the false rumour that the symptoms of coronavirus are caused by residing near a 5G mast. The petition was removed following inquiries from the Guardian."

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/04/uk-phone-masts-attacked-amid-5g-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1586003660

Edit: I've just read elsewhere that the belief is that 5G alters the immune system, facilitating illness by the virus, so not actually saying that the masts cause it directly. The Guardian article doesn't make that clear. Still mad as a box of frogs, though.

 

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Professor Neil Ferguson has an impressive resume. From Wikipedia:

"Neil Morris Ferguson OBE FMedSci (born 1968) is a British epidemiologist[3] and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals. He is the director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Vice-Dean for Academic Development in the Faculty of Medicine, all at Imperial College, London."

He has been advising the government on predicted figures for the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK, and today predicted a total of between 7,000 and 20,000 deaths. Frankly, that's fantastically good news. I was expecting far worse, given the increase from 465 total deaths recorded on March 26 to 4,313 yesterday.

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COVID-19 patients now being found to develop heart damage, and die of cardiac arrest.

https://khn.org/news/mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients/

I'd guess that this happens because the heart expresses a lot of ACE-2 receptors, which is the entry point used by SARS-CoV-2 to enter cells. If that's right, we might be hearing about intestinal effects soon, as the intestines also express a lot of ACE-2 receptors.

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So that's Boris Johnson in Intensive Care. 

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60% of Antarctic cruise ship passengers test positive for COVID-19. Frankly, I find it appalling that people are still going on cruises after all that has happened. They are floating petri dishes. This one sailed from Australia on March 15, so it's not as if they didn't know what they might be getting into. 128 of 217 passengers and crew are infected, and the ship is currently sitting off Uruguay. No one is being allowed off, unless very ill, although it looks as if Australian and New Zealand nationals might be flying home, where they'll go into quarantine for 14 days. The second article on the link says that more than a dozen cruise ships are currently stuck at sea due to the virus.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/07/americas/greg-mortimer-cruise-ship-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

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A few days ago, epidemiologists at Imperial College London were predicting 7,000 to 20,000 UK COVID-19 deaths. We'll pass the 7,000 mark today or tomorrow.

In today's Guardian, the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, based in Seattle, and regarded as one of the foremost authorities in this field in the world, are predicting 66,314 UK deaths, more than Italy, Spain and France combined, and not far short of the 81,766 US deaths they predict.

Frankly, I'm bamboozled.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/how-can-coronavirus-models-get-it-so-wrong

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Biggest UK daily death toll, yet, at 938. However, there's always a surge in UK deaths reporting on Tuesdays. It diminishes due to reduced manpower at the weekends, and this persists into Monday. Come Tuesday, there's a large increase due to the backlog of uncounted cases. Still, 938 is a lot. The UK has started counting 'community' deaths, but isn't including them in the hospital death stats. They're being counted in a separate database, which is updated once a week. France has also started counting community deaths, but has chosen to add them to the hospital deaths, which has resulted in a big increase in the daily death count.

Sweden is 'interesting'. They decided not to follow the lock downs and social distancing that have been implemented elsewhere. They have taken some measures. For example, secondary schools are closed, but primary schools aren't. The latest daily death toll is 96, with 114 reported yesterday. The population of Sweden is around 10 million, so these numbers are quite big, but not as big as you might expect. Do the Swedes know something the rest of us don't? Probably not. This is terra incognita for everyone, but they're an independently minded lot, and like to do their own thing.

I think the plan is to introduce more social isolation measures, but to do it more slowly. In my view, that's a gamble, but I'm really glad they're doing it. We need to know what works, and that means different countries trying out different strategies. Personally, I think they're in for a terrible time, because even if they were to implement the same lock down strategy as other countries tomorrow, the fact that they're almost on a par with UK daily deaths, relative to population, means that in the weeks it takes to see the curve begin to flatten, they'd be dealing with the UK equivalent of thousands of deaths a day. 

The plus side is that they'll get to the point where most people have been infected with it, and presumably become immune to it, more quickly than other countries. That means that normal life can resume again, or something like it. So, we might end up envying them, but probably not in the short term.

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