Jump to content
Pat's Guide to Glasgow West End
Sign in to follow this  
harper

Donald Trump / New President

Recommended Posts

We're hanging out with American chums tonight, on mass. ... Don't know if we are preparing for a wake or a celebration.  We've got bubbily and tissues on hand ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's challenging the voting system before the votes are counted. It's not going to be over soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a wee pinstickers guide to the likely night ahead

 

Midnight 

Indiana [11], Kentucky [8] and South Carolina [9]
These should all go for Trump. If he fails to win any of them then he's dead. 

Vermont [3]
Solid Clinton. Trump winning here is very unlikely.

Georgia [16]
Georgia should be a Republican state. Romney beat Obama by 8% in 2012. Trump's hair should be able to win this for the Republicans on its own. But this year it's in play. Some recent polls have been showing Trump ahead by just a few percent. A few, further back, had Clinton leading. If Trump loses Georgia then his path to the Whitehouse becomes limited to the one involving a big group of angry rednecks with shotguns.

Virginia [13]
Was Republican until Obama took it in 2008. He won it again in 2012 by 4%. Clinton has led in the polls pretty much all the way. At her high point, the lead was double figures. It's tightened over the last couple of weeks, but should be blue again. If Trump wins here then there's a decent chance that we'll all be dead in 6 months.

12:30am

West Virginia [5]
Was Democrat in the past, but now so Red that they've already called it for the Republicans through to 2056.

Ohio [18]
If Ohio was a Scottish politician it would be Tommy Sheridan. It has voted for the eventual winner 28 times out of 30 since 1896, and hasn't got it wrong since 1960. In 2012 it took nearly 4 hours to be called for Obama, who won by 3%. The polls have been back and forward this year, but edging towards Trump. Ol' wiggy has to win Ohio. 

North Carolina [15] 
Another must win for Trump. Solid Republican since the 70s, it finally fell to Obama in 2008 by just 14,000 votes (0.32%). Romney won it back in 2012, though. This time around Clinton has had a fairly steady lead of a few % for most of the race. A couple of suspicious late polls have shown Trump leading, though, so who knows. This one could take a while to be called. So important that Clinton held a midnight rally last night. Obviously keen to allay those satanic ritual rumours.

1am 

Alabama [9], Mississippi [6], Missouri [10], Oklahoma [7] & Tennessee [11]
These will all go for Trump. Any of these falling into Clinton's column is remote.

Connecticut [7], Delaware [3], Illinois [20], Maryland [10], Massachusetts [11], New Jersey [14], Rhode Island [4] and DC [3]
Should any of these vote for Trump, then Bill Clinton will be dusting down his little black book in preparation for Hillary's imminent jail term.

Maine [4]
What do you call someone from Maine? A Mainian? A Maniac? I have no idea. The important thing is that Clinton should pick up the EV's here. For the most part. Maine offers 2 EV's to the state winner, then 1 EV to the winner of each congressional district. Clinton will win the state, and one of the districts. The other district could go either way. 

Pennsylvania [20]
Once at the heart of Trumps 'rust belt' strategy to win the White House. That didn't quite pan out. Clinton has had a fairly solid 5%+ lead for most of the race. But polls have tightened over the last week. She should win. If she doesn't she's probably in trouble, and with the electoral prospects of Kezia Dugdale.

New Hampshire [4] 
Should really be in the 'Clinton will win' list above. She's lead consistently in the polls. But again, post-Comey, the race has tightened. A couple of late polls show Trump in the lead, the others a tie. It's only worth 4 EV's, but a Trump win here would be significant because it would be tremendously tremendous - the greatest ever electoral win in the history of electoral wins by a manchild with small hands.

Florida [29]
29 EV's of fingernail chewing anxiety. If Trump having to win Ohio is 10 on a scale of having to win things, then Florida is 47. I mean he *could* win without it by taking PA, OH, NC, NH, ME (2nd), CO, NV, Dudley South, West Dunbartonshire and South Mars. But c'mon. The polls give the edge to Clinton. And it should go that way if the Latino vote is as strong as being suggested. But as usual, this will be 'too close to call' for several hours/days/ice ages. Florida likes to keep us guessing. It's anyones guess which will come first. A result from Florida or a concession from Trump. Both are pencilled in for April 2053.

1.30am

Arkansas [6]
No one cares. Trump will win.

2am

Kansas [6], Louisiana [8], Nebraska [5], North Dakota [3], South Dakota [3], Texas [38] and Wyoming [3]
Safe Trump. Texas briefly considered the idea that a fairly efficient, experienced, intelligent ex-senator might be preferable to a dim witted, petulant, lying, vindictive, reprobate serial assaulter of women snake oil salesmanchild. The polls duly moved towards Clinton. But then they remembered that, having voted for Ted Cruz, shame was something they didn't need to consider and the polls moved back again.

Michigan [16], Minnesota [10], New Mexico [5] and New York[29]
These should be safe for Clinton. New Mexico and Minnesota have never been in play. Michigan is closer than it should be, but Clinton should still win comfortably. Boris Johnson could have run Clinton's campaign in New York and won. Any of these turning red would be a shock akin to the one Melania got the first morning she woke up next to Donald and saw him in the cold light of day.

Arizona [11]
Arizona has voted Republican in 15 of the last 16 elections. A Clinton win would put us in landslide territory.

Colorado [9]
Another that should be a Clinton win. Trump hasn't led a poll here since September. But a few close ones over the last week have given him hope. Keep in mind that marijuana is legal here, so anything is possible.

Wisconsin [10]
Probably isn't in play at all. Trump hasn't led a poll. But he seems to think he can win, and they're all strange up there so you never know. Worth keeping an eye on. If a Trump 'surge' happens, it'll be somewhere like Wisconsin. If anything, it'll be funny to see Paul Ryan having absolutely no impact on his home state yet again.

3am

Montana [3]
Montana will never vote for Clinton.

Utah [6]
This would normally be safe Republican. But Donald, being Donald, has managed to piss off a major constituency in the state - the Mormons. Evan McMullin, a 3rd party candidate and Mormon himself, has been polling not far behind the manchild in 2nd place. Trump will most likely win. But it's probably the only time Utah will ever be considered interesting.

Iowa [6]
Trump has led most of the polls here, with Clinton popping up every now and again to be there or there abouts. Of all the states Obama won in 2012, this should be #1 on his list of pickups.


Nevada [6]
A genuine too close to call, going by the polls. This has been back and forwards. If Trump is going to win without Pennsylvania and Virginia, it needs to be by picking up places like Nevada. Early voting has given Clinton the lead, though. Like Florida, much will depend on the Latino vote.

4am

Idaho [4]
The last time Idaho voted democrat the papers were still describing Bernie Sanders as a promising youngster. For Clinton to win here, there would need to be either massive vote fraud, or a massive alien invasion fleet.

California [55], Oregon [7], Washington [12] and Hawaii [4]
All safe Democrat. Only the San Andreas fault intervening and sinking the west coast into the sea will stop the Democrats from picking up the wins.

6am 

Alaska [3]
Alaska will vote for Trump. The groping stories probably haven't made their way out there yet. And if you can vote for Palin then Trump is like reeling the madness back in a bit. The last poll out of Alaska showed Trump with only a 3% lead. But we're talking Brexit levels of surprise if Clinton won Alaska.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Such a far cry from the hope, expectancy and joy when Obama was elected.  A Clinton win is just the lesser of two horrow shows.

Shountin' the games a bogey before the count is the sign of a very bad loser.

See you on the other side ....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In a very dark ending to his play ‘Juno and the Paycock’ O’Casey has Jack Boyle comment ‘The whole world’s in a terrible state of’ chassis’. Never before has this quotation had more resonance or relevance. Although the play appears to refer to a specific political state of affairs O’Casey, perhaps unknowingly, confirms that the world is actually in a never-ending political unrest. And never more so than now. I am listening to Trump’s speech, much of it plagiarised me thinks! I do not believe that any sincerity comes from that man’s lips. I despair.

At this moment in time I am feeling it’s the beginning of the end in so many ways. I despair of the future for my grandsons. I hope that the world it will cleanse itself and get a second chance,

 

Edited by maryspetses
grammar error

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The world is speaking but I am not sure I Iike what it is saying.  I agree with you Maryspetes, it really does feel as if we are doomed.  We have the political equivalent of the Kardashians. I am shocked.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 When I heard that the result was inevitable I felt physically sick. (I wasn't) I now expect an influx of American intelligentsia into Britain. My advice would be for them to choose a country staying in the EU. But maybe 'Better the devil you know' might be the safest bet so where do any of us go? The whole world is full of uncertainty and fear. I am not a Christian although I do try to follow Christ's teaching, (there is a difference) but can't help checking round corners in case Armageddon is lurking there. The four horsemen are certainly galloping fast across the Earth... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday I received three emails from Donald Trump so all was all guns blazing to catch any possible support – what it must have been like in America.

How the heck he ever managed to become a candidate for the most powerful position in the world is beyond belief. It actually has the makings of a sci fi novel.

I was so looking forward to not having to see him on the telly.  I got up at six to see what was happening so sad. Makes Brexit look like a wee hiccough.

If May can be persuaded to consider the need of Scotland to build its population then I think we could welcome many Americans to our shore.  I think Canada will benifit. Their immigration ministry site crashed in the middle of the night.

A new gold leaf white house will be an ugly site.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  Why can't Scotland build it's population? There are loads of Americans in the UK already.

 The 2001 UK Census recorded 158,434 people born in the United States.[1] According to the 2011 UK Census, there were 173,470 US-born residents in England, 3,715 in Wales,[2] 15,919 in Scotland,[3] and 4,251 in Northern Ireland.[4] The Office for National Statistics estimates that 197,000 US-born immigrants were resident in the UK in 2013.[5]

According to some of the Democrats I was with last night, Clinton was apparently damaged by her sense of entitlement to the Presidency with  Bill was quoting that  saying "It was her turn."  ...And the way she protected him in office and worked to discredit some of the women who exposed her his phillandering to protect the political family brand. She made some very bad decisions around that time and  I think Bill cost her the Presidency more than Trump.  It is over for her now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think there is a big lesson to be learned from Brexit and the election of Trump - too many people got lost and forgotten.  I am dismayed that people are choosing to express their anger in such a self destructive way. That said, Obama's adminstration never achieved it's ambitions, his hands were tied form the start.  The EU is cracked and not really fit for purpose.  People are hanging on to it because there is no better alternative.  We are heading into very dark times, indeed.

I am hoping Robert De Nero relocates to London:p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Scotland has the lowest fertility rates of all areas in the UK. It also has by far the lowest population density – per square metre England 413 Scotland 68.  It also has the lowest life expectancy.

There are three key elements to determining population change:  birth rates, life expectancy and net migration.  A combination of factors influences these elements including relative levels of economic prosperity and opportunity, quality of life and the provision of key public services.

Unfortunately a key lever to help deliver Scottish Government ambitions around population growth - immigration policy - is currently reserved to the UK Government. 'It is vital that we have an immigration system that supports the needs of Scottish businesses, universities and ensures long-term economic success and prosperity for Scotland. This would also help tackle Scotland's demographic challenge by not only contributing to redressing the dependency ratio but by enabling resources to be made available to support public services.

'The rate of sustainable economic growth is dependent on three key drivers: Productivity; Participation in the labour market; and Population Growth. Population growth is a key contributor to, and a consequence of, a more vibrant society and a more dynamic economy. It is also particularly vital to maintaining the sustainability of many of our rural and coastal communities.'

We really need to attract people of working age.  Scotland has a higher percentage of universities listed in the top 200 world rankings than England. Many graduates from these institutions express a strong desire to remain and work and live in Scotland, however, UK Government policy doesn't allow this.  It would be an important change made by Scottish Government if Scotland gained Independence.

________________

 

Back to Trump. I can recognise some of the reasons people had for not voting for Hillary Clinton. I think the hate message carried a lot of force. Even with Trump now President elect  they're still shouting 'Lock Her Up.'  

Pity they couldn't have found two more suitable candidates out of all those hundreds of millions.  They've not got a President who boast about not being a politician. Beyond belief.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't understand why the same immigration rules throughout the Uk have a disproportionate affect on Scotland or are their different rules it different rules?  Is it only graduates of Scottish Universites that have to leave the country or is it the same throughout the UK? 

Back on Trump

The election of trump is akin to the realisation the ultimate conclusion of reality TV and popular culture.  ... Reminds me of a once popular saying round these parts but not often repeated - modern life is rubbish.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Special arrangements to allow graduates to remain have been agreed by the Government with Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial College and a couple of other English Universities. Have forgotten which ones.  So, no, not the same throughout the UK.  Increasingly you feel that we don't get much consideration. Fluffy Mundell Secretary of State for Scotland is unlikely to push for Scottish affairs over Tory loyalty. 

Aye, he (Trump) has served his time on telly – not much of an apprenticeship for presidency.  Where's Bernie Saunders when you need him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Michael Moore’s Trump To Do List

9TH NOVEMBER 2016 3 COMMENTS

This is by writer and filmmaker Michael Moore.

Morning After To-Do List:

1. Take over the Democratic Party and return it to the people. They have failed us miserably.

2. Fire all pundits, predictors, pollsters and anyone else in the media who had a narrative they wouldn’t let go of and refused to listen to or acknowledge what was really going on. Those same bloviators will now tell us we must “heal the divide” and “come together.” They will pull more hooey like that out of their ass in the days to come. Turn them off.

3. Any Democratic member of Congress who didn’t wake up this morning ready to fight, resist and obstruct in the way Republicans did against President Obama every day for eight full years must step out of the way and let those of us who know the score lead the way in stopping the meanness and the madness that’s about to begin.

4. Everyone must stop saying they are “stunned” and “shocked”. What you mean to say is that you were in a bubble and weren’t paying attention to your fellow Americans and their despair. YEARS of being neglected by both parties, the anger and the need for revenge against the system only grew. Along came a TV star they liked whose plan was to destroy both parties and tell them all “You’re fired!” Trump’s victory is no surprise. He was never a joke. Treating him as one only strengthened him. He is both a creature and a creation of the media and the media will never own that.

5. You must say this sentence to everyone you meet today: “HILLARY CLINTON WON THE POPULAR VOTE!” The MAJORITY of our fellow Americans preferred Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Period. Fact. If you woke up this morning thinking you live in an effed-up country, you don’t. The majority of your fellow Americans wanted Hillary, not Trump. The only reason he’s president is because of an arcane, insane 18th-century idea called the Electoral College. Until we change that, we’ll continue to have presidents we didn’t elect and didn’t want. You live in a country where a majority of its citizens have said they believe there’s climate change, they believe women should be paid the same as men, they want a debt-free college education, they don’t want us invading countries, they want a raise in the minimum wage and they want a single-payer true universal health care system. None of that has changed. We live in a country where the majority agree with the “liberal” position. We just lack the liberal leadership to make that happen (see: #1 above).

Let’s try to get this all done by noon today.

– Michael Moore

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Michael Moore is one of the good guys but l, I think it might be Monday before the world gets over shock and stunned.

Margaret Beckett "it feels like the end of the world." indeed.

Amercian friends predicting that he will resign at some point.  We can only hope.  My theory is that if he does too much damage he will be taken out.  The world can not be put at risk by this man. Just don't let in him play video games in the same room as the Button!

Cheeky, joke email from an American chum "The Storonoway Boy's done good." 

Re: Universities. I see what you mean now.  That doesn't seem fair.

Back on topic ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are doing better than you think. Scotland is recording the highest population in ten years. I am surprised we haven't heard more about the university issue. ...Seems to be a cross part issue to me.  How has it been justified?

http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/high-level-summary/j11198/j1119801.htm

 

Obama has responded in such a classy way - wouldn't really expect anything different. Meanwhile, behind the scenes ...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/obama-west-wing-trump-panic-231141

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, know that about the population but it is still far too small. The point is that the UK Government policy and attitude towards migration is focused on the situation in England and that doesn't fit with Scotland's needs.  

Justification doesn't seem to come into it regarding the special conditions for four English universities. I suppose they would justify it by saying it's a pilot project.   And I would assume that as far as the Government are concerned at English Universities come under English matters.  It's based on successful visa application, which has been called into question. https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/home-office-eases-visa-rules-four-selective-universities

I can imagine the panic in the White House. Not often you have a non-politician as President.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there nothing Scotland can do to attack migration away from England?  if there was a more balanced spread of migration across the UK I don't think numbers would have become an issue.  The South East aint all that ...

I don't think Trump is the only President elect - wow it feels so weird to type that - never to have held office, Eisenhower comes to mind and I think there was another but you can bet your bottom dollar they had a damn sight more going fo them than Trump.

To save my sanity I am following Obama's lead and saying "Let's see what he can do"  I thought Brexit was bad enough but as you say... a hiccup by comparison.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm glad I'm in Scotland. Hope we get some people relocating here. My sister says that Barbra Streisland is heading to Canada.

I'm not listening to anything else Trump has to say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that there's probably less migration from England these days because there is more animosity between the two countries but that's not based on any statistical information.

Some of the things we could do w can't do because we're not allowed to.  Everything is geared towards what suits other places. I've already mentioned the universities. The other issue is the amount that non-EU migrants have to earn before they can stay  £35,000 is a hefty pay packet to find in Scotland – not so much so in the South East.

Yet, when benefits are cut the ceiling for London is higher.  So it's not like they are unaware that there are different features to different areas.

_______

I am moving Mary Spetses thread on the New President out of the web admin area and onto this page.

Might get us back on track. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Woke up this morning and heard Leonard Cohen had died.  Burst into tears at the loss of such a wonderful, spiritual person and look what we are left with.  I'm done on Trump.  I am done with political discussion.  The world is f*****. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...