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  1. Yesterday
  2. UK daily reported deaths from COVID-19. These are hospital deaths of confirmed patients. In Italy, hospital deaths are believed to be only a quarter of the total COVID-19 deaths, deduced by comparing total death statistics from previous years.
  3. given this Government has excluded us from the EU ventilator programme and instead of placing an order for new ventilators with a company that actually makes them, instead choosing to reward a tax dodging, vacuum cleaner maker who has nil experience making ventillators, him catching it was beautiful karma in action
  4. Last week
  5. Fabulous resource curated by Glasgow Film Festival https://www.glasgowwestend.co.uk/the-social-isolation-film-festival-curated-by-gft/
  6. Who's going to deliver, samcs? See Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock and Prof Whitty all got the virus. Who got it first. Been standing next to each other for weeks now. Should have done that social distancing and paid heed to W.H.O.
  7. Sounds horrific, Pat. I remember you mentioning it years ago, and saying that some of your friends had the same. Both bacteria and viruses can hide away in cells after the initial infection, and it's the chronically activated NF-kB driven immune response against these hidden pathogens that causes all the symptoms, so it can happen after infection with any one of a legion of pathogens. Chronic fatigue syndrome is perhaps the most common result, followed by neurological symptoms and joint and muscle pain. I think this element of COVID-19 infection could turn out to be important if it infects as many people as the experts are predicting, but it's probably a relatively small percentage of the population who are infected that are at risk, probably the less than 20% in whom the disease is not mild. They're the ones who have an inappropriately strong NF-kB driven immune response, which can cause problems. Here's an extract from another paper: "Results: Of 369 SARS survivors, 233 (63.1%) participated in the study (mean period of time after SARS, 41.3 months). Over 40% of the respondents had active psychiatric illnesses, 40.3% reported a chronic fatigue problem, and 27.1% met the modified 1994 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for chronic fatigue syndrome." And this: Among SARS survivors, high rates of distress (well above norms) were consistently reported across all timeframes in Asia Pacific regions, where the majority of studies were conducted (Chiu, 2004; Kwek et al., 2006). For example, Cheng and colleagues (2004) found that 65% of SARS patients, at 1-month recovery, scored in the “mild, moderate, or severe” range of depression and anxiety on the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI; Beck & Steer, 1987) and Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI; Beck, Epstein, Brown, & Steer, 1988; Cheng, Wong, Tsang, & Wong, 2004). Longer-term studies continued to show considerably elevated rates of psychological morbidity among SARS survivors. In a 1-year follow-up study, Lee and colleagues (2007) found elevated levels of distress on the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS) (Lee et al., 2007; Lovibond & Lovibond, 1995). The authors concluded that 64% of the survivors in their study were “potential psychiatric cases” (p. 237). In another study, based on structured diagnostic interviews, and two self-report questionnaires, a cumulative incidence (total number of diagnostic categories) of 58.9% for psychiatric disorders was found at 30 months post-SARS (Mak, Chu, Pan, Yiu, & Chan, 2009). Lam and colleagues (2009), using a thorough methodology, also reported a high rate (42.5%) of psychiatric morbidity in their large sample up to 4 years postinfection (Lam et al., 2009).
  8. taking a bath in cow dung will help with effective social distancing
  9. Will have a look at the site you mentioned above, Yonza. I have Lyme Disease which I contracted in Canada in 2006. It definitely had neurological symptoms with one of the most difficult symptoms being what they call 'brain fog'. Took me a long, long time to get back to more or less normal. I had to leave my job and we also had to move house as I was too weak to manage stairs. I got good treatment from a private Lyme Doctor in Bolton, firstly with anti-biotics over a few months and then treatment to build immunity. Lyme is caused by bacteria though, which is different from a virus so I don't know how effective the immunity building is in relation to coronavirus but won't do any harm. Has cost me a fortune over the years and still does.
  10. I've just been reading a paper that said COVID-19 infects the brain. That rang an alarm bell. A lot of these emerging infections can have what are known as 'sequelae'. That's a higher incidence of various diseases in those who have been infected years later. Zika, chikungunya, and particularly Lyme disease spring to mind. Post infectious Lyme can have many neurological symptoms. SARS happened in 2003, so I decided to see if I could find any info on SARS sequelae. Found this. Only a tiny number of people were infected with SARS. Some are predicting as high as 80% infected with COVID-19. In this issue, Mak et al. [1] report that among 90 residents of Hong Kong who were infected with SARS and survived, 23 (25.6%) had posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and 14 (15.6%) had depressive disorders 30 months after their infection (a total of 27 people, 30%, had at least one of these diagnoses). The authors refer to this as a “mental health catastrophe.” What are we to make of this report? The first thing to note is that these results are consistent with previous studies that have reported persistent psychological symptoms in 41–65% of SARS survivors [2], [3], [4], although the previous studies were not designed to diagnose psychiatric illness. The finding that SARS patients who were healthcare workers are at increased risk of PTSD (40.7%) is also consistent with one previous report [2] and with the finding that healthcare workers who cared for SARS patients but were not infected continued to experience substantial psychological distress [5], if not mental illness [6], 1–2 years after the outbreak.
  11. Really good site with lots of stats and graphs. https://www.covidgraph.com/p/coronavirus.html#causes
  12. Believing that cow urine can ward off coronavirus, a Hindu group in India reportedly hosted a cow urine drinking party Saturday to test their belief. The cow is sacred to many Hindus and some drink cow urine believing it has medicinal purposes. But experts have repeatedly asserted that cow urine does not cure illnesses like cancer and there is no evidence that it can prevent coronavirus, according to Reuters. The party hosted by Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha (All India Hindu Union) drew a crowd of 200 people in New Delhi, according to Reuters. “We have been drinking cow urine for 21 years, we also take bath in cow dung. We have never felt the need to consume English medicine,” Om Prakash, an attendee told Reuters.
  13. Went to the East Kilbride shopping centre yesterday. Sundays at 12 noon are never very busy, but this was as dead as I've seen it. McDonald's was still open, as was KFC, and the coffee shops, but only for takeaways. I hear that Mcdonald's is closing down all their outlets after 7 pm this evening. The restaurants, 3 pubs and 3 bookmakers shops were closed, and some shops that could have stayed open had opted to close. The barber's shops were still doing business, which surprised me a bit. I'd have thought they'd be closed like the pubs and restaurants. Some shops had signs urging card payment, but not actually saying that they would refuse cash. Only saw one person wearing a face mask, an assistant in the Holland & Barrett health food shop. Got a year's supply of vitamin D and C, but not from H&B. They're too expensive. And I got £10 worth of frozen basa. That's not me hoarding. I always buy 3 bags of basa from Iceland when I'm in. My local Sainsbury's hasn't stocked it for a while, so I've been making do with pollack for my stir fries. Pollack's okay, but not as firm and tasty as basa. I almost live on brown rice, fish and vegetable stir fries.
  14. Thanks Pat for the clarification in respect of anti-inflammatory drugs. There are so many ill-informed rumours flying about we don't know what to believe. This crisis seems to bring out the best and worst in people. The best is putting others first, the worst is selfishness and greed.I am buying (or rather my son is as I'm staying at home) only what I need. If it's not available I'll take an alternative or do without. There is plenty for everyone if people would only stop stock-piling. I heard today of food being taken from the food bank collection in a super-market. If true then I begin to lose faith in Humans...
  15. Italy COVID-19 deaths 1 March 34 7 March 233 UK COVID-19 deaths 14 days later 15 March 35 21 March 233 As of today, Italy has had 4,825 COVID-19 deaths.
  16. Earlier
  17. This is an abstract from a British Medical Journal paper which did a meta analysis on the efficacy of vitamin D supplementation for bronchial infections. Much of it is incomprehensible to the layman, but you can understand the conclusion. Abstract Objectives To assess the overall effect of vitamin D supplementation on risk of acute respiratory tract infection, and to identify factors modifying this effect. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) from randomised controlled trials. Data sources Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number registry from inception to December 2015. Eligibility criteria for study selection Randomised, double blind, placebo controlled trials of supplementation with vitamin D3 or vitamin D2 of any duration were eligible for inclusion if they had been approved by a research ethics committee and if data on incidence of acute respiratory tract infection were collected prospectively and prespecified as an efficacy outcome. Results 25 eligible randomised controlled trials (total 11 321 participants, aged 0 to 95 years) were identified. IPD were obtained for 10 933 (96.6%) participants. Vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of acute respiratory tract infection among all participants (adjusted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.96; P for heterogeneity <0.001). In subgroup analysis, protective effects were seen in those receiving daily or weekly vitamin D without additional bolus doses (adjusted odds ratio 0.81, 0.72 to 0.91) but not in those receiving one or more bolus doses (adjusted odds ratio 0.97, 0.86 to 1.10; P for interaction=0.05). Among those receiving daily or weekly vitamin D, protective effects were stronger in those with baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels <25 nmol/L (adjusted odds ratio 0.30, 0.17 to 0.53) than in those with baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels ≥25 nmol/L (adjusted odds ratio 0.75, 0.60 to 0.95; P for interaction=0.006). Vitamin D did not influence the proportion of participants experiencing at least one serious adverse event (adjusted odds ratio 0.98, 0.80 to 1.20, P=0.83). The body of evidence contributing to these analyses was assessed as being of high quality. Conclusions Vitamin D supplementation was safe and it protected against acute respiratory tract infection overall. Patients who were very vitamin D deficient and those not receiving bolus doses experienced the most benefit.
  18. Well, it looks like I'm scuppered for excursions this summer. The clocks go forward on Sat 28 March, and that's when bus and ferry services change to their summer timetables. I was looking forward to getting out and about, but the government's advice not to travel unless necessary, plus the travel firms cutting their services due to decreased demand means that I'm reluctantly going to be staying put. Also, tourist attractions, such as museums, have closed their doors until further notice, so it's a no brainer. I've spent some time during the winter, working out what trips I'd like to go on, so I'll post the gist of them here. Three of the trips involved travel to Inverness. One then went to Ullapool, and returned the same route back to Inverness, before getting the bus back to Glasgow. Another went from Inverness to Kyle of Lochalsh, then another bus down the coast to Fort William, then either a bus to Glasgow via Glencoe, or a train through Rannoch moor. The last was a trip from Inverness to Aberdeen going through several towns, including Elgin, Keith, Huntly and Inverurie, before getting a bus from Aberdeen to Glasgow. I'd have stopped off at Elgin for a couple of hours. Several trips took in the Mull of Kintyre. One involved getting a ferry from Gourock to Dunoon, then a trip across the Cowal peninsula and Kyle of Bute along Argyllshire's 'secret coast', through Tighnabruaich to Portavadie, on Loch Fyne. I'd get another ferry from Portavadie across the loch to Tarbert, at the northern end of the Mull of Kintyre, before returning the same way. Another involved a ferry to Brodick, on Arran, bus from Brodick to Lochranza, then ferry to Claonaig, on the Mull of Kintyre. After disembarking at Claonaig, I'd walk half way across the Mull (3 miles), before a bus arrived which I'd take to Ardrishaig, at the start of the Crinan canal. Then, I'd walk for two miles along the canal towpath to Lochgilphead, before getting the Campbeltown bus back to Glasgow. There's three ferries a week from Ardrossan to Campbeltown. They're intended for locals, rather than day trippers, but there's one on a Sunday that gets into Campbeltown half an hour before the last bus (1700) to Glasgow. I know it sounds a bit mental to get a 2.5 hour ferry just to spend half an hour in town, but I've become a ferry bagger, and it's on my bucket list. I'd have enough time to check out the Linda McCartney memorial garden, take a few pics, and get a hot pie before boarding the bus back. Another trip would have been to the small ferry terminal of Tayinloan, half way down the Mull of Kintyre, to get a 20 minute ferry to the island of Gigha. Gigha is a small island, just 3 miles from the coast, and it's just 6 miles long, with a road the same length. It's quite fertile, and its name derives from the Viking for 'good' island. Despite being so small, there are two bike hire businesses, a general store, a kayak and rowing boat hire, and two restaurants that get almost 5 stars each on Tripadvisor. The island was bought from the owner by the inhabitants, and the main attraction (for some) is Achamore gardens, which were created by a previous owner. Achamore house is now a B&B establishment. However, the most ambitious trip that I had planned was to Islay. It involved getting an early morning taxi from Strathaven to Buchanan Street bus station, in order to get the first bus from Glasgow to Campbeltown at 0615. This would have got me into Kennacraig ferry terminal on the Mull of Kintyre in time to get the 10.00 am ferry to Port Ellen, taking 2 hours 20 minutes to get there. I'd spend 55 minutes in Port Ellen, before getting a bus to the island's administrative capital, Bowmore. I'd have 1 hour and 6 minutes in Bowmore, before getting the bus to Port Askaig. Then, I'd have just 20 minutes in Port Askaig, before getting the 1 hour 55 minutes ferry back to Kennacraig. Within half an hour, the last bus from Campbeltown to Glasgow would show up. I was really looking forward to that one. Other trips involved Oban. I fancied travelling north up the west coast from Oban to Fort William, connecting with the Glasgow to Fort William route at Ballachulish. It was only a 30 mile trip that I hadn't been on, but seemed well worth doing. Another was a trip from Tarbert up the west coast through a few hamlets, arriving at Oban. I was surprised that there was actually a bus service for that area. Again, not very long, but worth the effort. One more trip I had planned was from Edinburgh, getting off at Peebles, then continuing through Galashiels to Melrose, taking in the abbey, then returning to Edinburgh on the recently revived Borders rail line.
  19. Heartbreaking. I felt uplifted today as I couldn't see a soul about when I looked out the window. First time that's ever been the case in all the time we've lived here as we look over the station. But Jim (who is sole worker in studio) said he went out at lunchtime to the supermarket to buy soup and people were on top of each other at the checkout and the shop was busy. What the hell!!
  20. America's health care shortcomings are being exposed. They have been testing much less than other countries, initially because their test kits didn't work, but also because the system is mostly driven by the profit motive, and political intervention is perceived as 'socialism'. The Republicans who are in charge resist anything that resembles a national health service paid for by taxpayers. Stories abound of people with symptoms unable to get tested. That seems to be about to change, as testing is about to ramp up considerably. I think they're in for a shock. The US Surgeon General today said that the US is currently where Italy was just 2 weeks ago. https://globalnews.ca/news/6683488/us-coronavirus-cases-italy/ In other news - Lombardy - 13 doctors have died of COVID-19. Ireland - the government has said that 400,000 out of a workforce of 2.3 million could lose their jobs. Italy - has now overtaken China as the country with the most confirmed deaths, 3,405, a rise of 427 on the day before. A health care worker said they had stopped counting bodies, and a convoy of army trucks was filmed taking away the bodies that the crematoria couldn't cope with. A director of a funeral business in the worst hit region said they are carrying out 600 funerals a month, compared with the normal 120.
  21. Seems to be a bit different from other countries. So many people in America with no health insurance. Wonder how they're being treated?
  22. Cut & paste American adults of all ages — not just those in their 70s, 80s and 90s — are being seriously sickened by the coronavirus, according to a report on nearly 2,500 of the first recorded cases in the United States. The Report issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that — as in other countries — the oldest patients had the greatest likelihood of dying and of being hospitalized. But of the 508 patients known to have been hospitalized, 38 percent were notably younger — between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65, the C.D.C. reported. “I think everyone should be paying attention to this,” said Stephen S. Morse, a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “It’s not just going to be the elderly. There will be people age 20 and up. They do have to be careful, even if they think that they’re young and healthy.”
  23. No new cases in China yesterday. I read this very sad view from Italian mother. https://www.insider.com/coronavirus-italian-mom-and-these-are-the-mistakes-we-made-2020-3?fbclid=IwAR1bx-S0hOgSnYsBIL2Zw-PrAzLO7MGY2xGMZq5HpURIAMAUMHV2PxuzbXs First time in thirteen years looking out window and no-one coming and going from the train station.
  24. Have read different views on anti inflammatory drugs, yonza. I take anti-inflammatory Etodolac for arthritis and top up with ibuprofen and use ibuprofen gel. It would be hard lines if you got the virus and then were in pain alongside other symptoms. I'm glad the schools have closed as didn't seem to make sense saying not to mix in crowds then the kids going off and mixing in their hundreds. Some schools had closed already because teachers were becoming ill or falling into vulnerable categories. All very scary. Good that they are improving testing. Hope they're getting enough ventilators (and actually know how to produce them). This was one article I saw: https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/media/pressrel/advice-about-anti-inflammatory-medication-and-covid-19.html
  25. NHS advice is to take an antiinflammatory drug, such as ibuprofen, if infected. This advice has been criticised, as there appears to be evidence that taking ibuprofen for human coronavirus infections can actually prolong the illness. However, this is a novel zoonotic coronavirus, and may not act the same as human ones. Sometimes, it's the immune system that causes the problem, rather than the virus (or bacterium) itself. It is now recognised that most non-communicable diseases, like type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer's etc, are associated with (and very probably being caused by) a chronic inflammatory response driven by the transcription factor, NF-kB. These diseases exacerbate the effect of COVID-19 infection, probably because the systemic NF-kB driven response is chronically activated in them, and becomes even more strongly activated by infection, causing cellular destruction. Chronic NF-kB activation is strongly associated with ageing, which may help to explain why children are much less affected by COVID-19. The NF-kB response is primarily against pathogens that establish long term intracellular latency, such as the herpes family. Human coronaviruses are not known to do this, but this isn't a human one, and research indicates that it establishes latency in bats. NSAIDs inhibit NF-kB, and if it's the case that the damage caused by COVID-19 is actually being caused by the NF-kB driven immune response (as happens in TB and many other infections), then ibuprofen might be helpful. I'll be taking it when I get infected.
  26. Exponential. What's it going to look like by April?
  27. Italy 3 590 infected and 368 dead today alone. Totals 24 747 infected. 1 809 dead. 7.3% death rate. That death rate is huge and needs explaining.
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